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Filed 23:08 UTC · locked in before kickoff
Settled · SharpCast Pick Lost
MallorcaFiled 23:08 UTC · locked in before kickoff
Tap any market for the model's reasoning, the numbers behind it and to track the pick. Fair price is the de overrounded model probability expressed as decimal odds, not a bookmaker quote.
2.2 expected goals · most likely total 2 · a balanced game
model probability · fair price
Each side's goals per game over recent matches (the bar) against the expected goals their chances were worth (the tick). Scoring past the tick means finishing well; conceding inside the tick means defending well.
From both sides' cards per game over the last 5+ matches, shrunk toward the league baseline.
This call rests on Dixon Coles strength, time decayed form, expected goals and the de overrounded market consensus, across 10,000 simulated matches. It was locked before kickoff and is kept on this site.